BREXIT – Day Three, What is Trading?

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Following on from our BREXIT -What is Trading after the Result? Day One, and Day Two blogs, we will again be keeping a close eye on trade prices and volumes reported to US SDRs.

18:17 LON – GBP Close

  • GBP swaps hit £10.6 billion in traded notional across all Libor indices
  • £4.33 million in DV01, more than yesterday. Another big volume day
  • 169 swaps reported to the SDRs
  • 10 year swaps are closing just above 1.00%, some way down from their highs of the day. Price moves were significantly less than previous days.
  • With good volumes traded, maybe we’ll be able to confirm that liquidity conditions are improving towards the end of the week?
GBP IRS 1822
GBP IRS Prices and Volumes at the close. Note that ten year IRS is hovering just above 1.00%, some way down from the highs earlier today.
GBP Volumes 1820
Final GBP Volumes for Tuesday 28th. Note the large amount of DV01 that has traded – more than yesterday.

16:27 LON – GBP Volumes impressive again

We’ve now seen over £10.4bn trade today across Libor 6m and 3m swaps – another impressive day, and higher volumes already than yesterday. Price moves have been far less than the previous two days. Just ahead of the closes, here’s the latest update:

GBP IRS 1629
GBP IRS Prices and Volumes as at 16:29 LON
GBP Volumes 1630
GBP IRS Volumes across all indices. Risk has been well spread out across the curve. £10.5bn has traded, which equates to £4.25m in DV01 so far….

13:30 LON – Plenty of GBP Swaps trading

There is plenty of volume going through and yields seem to have found a bottom. We are seeing just as much trade vs 3m LIBOR as we are vs 6m LIBOR. There could be some basis trades going through, but it seems that most of the 3m LIBOR trades are at the short-end. £4.4bn has traded so far, equating to £2m in DV01. 10 years last traded at 1.025%.

GBP Volumes 1332
GBP IRS Volumes as at 13:32 LON

11:57am LON – USD Swaps recap

A decent volume morning in USD swaps, with over 200 trades and nearly $11bn in notional trading. Rates are up to 5 basis points higher than last night – 10 years is leading the way higher in rates.

USD IRS 1157
USD IRS Prices and Volumes as at 11:57am LON

11:51am LON – GBP Swaps morning review

Hello New York and welcome to calmer seas today. GBP 10 year swaps are back above 1.00% again as rates move slightly higher. There was a lot of activity in the first 90 minutes of GBP trading, but that has since calmed down substantially. Rates are between 2 and 4 basis points higher across the curve, in a slight steepening move.

In total, £1.5bn has traded across 44 swaps vs 6m LIBOR.

It’s also interesting to note that we’ve had more action in the short-end, with an additional £1.4bn trading in 2 years vs 3m LIBOR.

GBP IRS 1153
GBP IRS Prices and Volumes as at 11:53 LON

08:53am LON – GBP Swaps begin to trade (and at higher rates)

We’ve had 15 trades totaling £458m in 6m LIBOR swaps already today, which increases to 20 trades and £606m if we include all GBP swap indices. Rates are nearly 6 basis points higher in 10 years and back above 1.00%.

GBP IRS 0855
GBP IRS Prices and Volumes as at 08:55am LON. 10 years has moved back above 1.00% this morning

08:50am LON – GBP Moves yesterday

GBP Swap rates closed at, or close, to their lows of the day yesterday. This was as much as 20 basis points lower than Friday’s closes. With USD rates recovering a touch higher overnight, it will be interesting to see where we open today. Some GBP activity has already been reported to the SDRs this morning (update to follow).

GBP IRS 27th Closes
GBP IRS Prices and Volumes for Monday 27th. Big moves lower in yield on very good volume of market standard swaps.

08:35am LON – GBP Recap

With the USD updates done (see 08:30am and 08:20am below) we can turn our attention to the main event. GBP Swaps once again saw large volumes yesterday. The volumes were much larger in market standard swaps – i.e. vs 6m Libor – than on Friday. But when we look at total volumes across all indices, volumes were only slightly higher than normal.

GBP Volumes 270616
GBP Volumes yesterday were higher than typical. The most elevated volumes were in market standard instruments vs 6m LIBOR.

08:30am LON – USD Swaps trading higher

USD Swaps have been busy overnight, with over 100 trades reported already. Rates are higher across the curve – but up to 3.2 basis points in 10 years.

USD IRS 0830
USD IRS Prices and volumes as at 08:30am LON
USD Volumes 0833
USD IRS Volumes have been impressive overnight, with nearly $5.5bn already having traded.

08:20am LON – Overnight Wrap

USD swaps yesterday saw some more big moves in price, with yields nearly 15 basis points lower in 10 years. The curve flattened. Despite the big moves, volumes were back to “normal”, with $111bn in notional trading:

USD Volumes 270616
USD Volumes in notional terms for past 10 sessions.
USD IRS 27th Closes
USD IRS Volumes and prices as at the close on Monday 27th. Some big moves lower in yield, but volumes were not huge.

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