Welcome back for this weeks edition. This week will be short on commentary but long on data. I usually have the liberty of a handful of hours to collate and prepare comments on Monday, but today I had the pleasure of attending SEFCON IV which took away some of my free time.
Friday Nov 15th marked the end of the 7th calendar week. We’re starting to pile up some good history now. With the usual caveats, lets dive into the numbers, starting with this weeks headline table.
Looking at just FRA activity for the week:
Removing FRA’s leaves us with a normalized table of activity:
NOW LETS PUT THIS INTO PERSPECTIVE
We now have enough data to start analyzing trends, particularly through the Nov 2 no-action relief. Here is the most recent 3 weeks of data, with change calculated for the final two weeks. Like last week, I have separated this into D2D and D2C:
1) D2C client volumes dropped 26%. Is the Nov 2 no-action relief expiration to blame?
2) Monday Nov-11 was a US holiday, so does that explain why we’re off 26%?
3) Mondays are historically low volume. Quickly looking back at last week, Monday Nov-4 only accounted for 12% of the weeks activity, so this does not explain it.
4) D2C Rates activity was off 39%, accounting for much of the change. FX and Credit basically flat.
5) D2D activity off 12%, I would think we can explain this fully by the holiday.
LEAVE YOUR INTERPRETATION
Use the comment section, we want to hear your interpretation of the results.